rationalnewsletter

Issue #95: Full List

Heritability often increases, rather than decreases, from childhood to adulthood. Environmental factors that people who grow up together are more likely to have in common make surprisingly little difference to how people turn out. // drive.google.com

# Instrumental

Reality-Revealing and Reality-Masking Puzzles // AnnaSalamon, 15 min Favorite

Key Decision Analysis - a fundamental rationality technique // elityre, 3 min

# Epistemic

Studying Early Stage Science: Research Program Introduction // habryka, 18 min

Red Flags for Rationalization // dspeyer, 4 min

Testing for Rationalization // dspeyer, 3 min

Clarifying The Malignity of the Universal Prior: The Lexical Update // interstice, 3 min

Avoiding Rationalization // dspeyer, 2 min

Using Expert Disagreement // dspeyer, 6 min

Can we always assign probabilities? // MichaelA, 14 min

Against Rationalization II: Sequence Recap // dspeyer, 1 min

# Ai

Update on Ought's experiments on factored evaluation of arguments // Owain_Evans, 1 min

Remote AI alignment writing group seeking new members // rmoehn, 1 min

Artificial Intelligence and Life Sciences (Why Big Data is not enough to capture biological systems?) // HansNauj, 7 min

What is the relationship between Preference Learning and Value Learning? // Riccardo Volpato, 1 min

Fire Alarm for AGI // user134723, 1 min

# Meta-ethics

What do we mean by “moral uncertainty”? // MichaelA, 15 min

# Anthropic

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races // Gentzel, 3 min

How has the cost of clothing insulation changed since 1970 in the USA? // DanielFilan, 1 min

What long term good futures are possible. (Other than FAI)? // Donald Hobson, 1 min

# Decision theory

Being a Robust, Coherent Agent (V2) // Raemon, 8 min

The Road to Mazedom // Zvi, 8 min

How to Identify an Immoral Maze // Zvi, 5 min

How to Escape From Immoral Mazes // Zvi, 23 min

ACDT: a hack-y acausal decision theory // Stuart_Armstrong, 8 min

CDT going bonkers... forever // Stuart_Armstrong, 1 min

The Alignment-Competence Trade-Off, Part 1: Coalition Size and Signaling Costs // Gentzel, 3 min

Is backwards causation necessarily absurd? // Chris_Leong, 1 min

Risk and uncertainty: A false dichotomy? // MichaelA, 23 min

# Math and cs

Malign generalization without internal search // Matthew Barnett, 4 min

In defense of deviousness // Juan Andrés Hurtado Baeza, 5 min

UML VI: Stochastic Gradient Descent // sil ver, 13 min

# Ea

Tips on how to promote effective altruism effectively? Less talk, more action. // culturechange, 1 min

# Relationships

Go F*** Someone // Jacobian, 9 min

# Community

Bay Solstice 2019 Retrospective // mingyuan, 18 min

Why a New Rationalization Sequence? // dspeyer, 3 min

Drawing Toward Power // hiblick, 2 min

What are beliefs you wouldn't want (or would feel apprehensive about being) public if you had (or have) them? // Mati_Roy, 1 min

What plausible beliefs do you think could likely get you diagnosed with a mental illness by a psychiatrist? // Mati_Roy, 1 min

Austin LW/SSC Far-comers Meetup: Feb. 8, 1:30pm // jchan, 1 min

2019 Adversarial Collaboration Winners // Scott Alexander, 8 min

# Culture war

Conversational Cultures: Combat vs Nurture (V2) // Ruby, 10 min Favorite

Repossessing Degrees // jkaufman, 2 min

The Internet of Beefs // Venkatesh Rao, 19 min

Predictable Identities 24: Anti-Identity // Jacob Falkovich, 1 min

# Misc

"human connection" as collaborative epistemics // toonalfrink, 2 min

Ascetic aesthetic // Dominik Tujmer, 3 min

Using Vickrey auctions as a price discovery mechanism // epiphi, 1 min

"How quickly can you get this done?" (estimating workload) // kerspoon, 5 min

Political Roko's basilisk // Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir, 1 min

How does a Living Being solve the problem of Subsystem Alignment? // Alan Givré, 1 min

What types of compute/processing could we distinguish? // MoritzG, 1 min

Is NYC Building Much Housing? // jkaufman, 1 min

Contra Contra Contra Caplan On Psych // Scott Alexander, 16 min

# Podcasts

102 – Decade in Review // The Bayesian Conspiracy, 142 min

#44 Classic episode - Paul Christiano on finding real solutions to the AI alignment problem // The 80000 Hours team, 231 min

#181 — The Illusory Self // Waking up with Sam Harris, 92 min

# Videos of the week

How civilization could destroy itself -- and 4 ways we could prevent it | Nick Bostrom // TED, 21 min