rationalnewsletter

Issue #129

The apparent presence of phosphine (PH3) gas in Venus’s atmosphere with no known abiotic source might suggest presence of life (or anomalous and unexplained chemistry). // www.nature.com

# Coronavirus

Covid 9/10: Vitamin D // Zvi, 19 min

Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID // df-fd, 1 min

In 1 year and 5 years what do you see as "the normal" world. // jmh, 1 min

Decision theory analysis of whether vaccines should be distributed prior to the completion of stage three trials please // rockthecasbah, 1 min

# Instrumental

Capturing Ideas // abramdemski, 10 min

‘Ugh fields’, or why you can’t even bear to think about that task (Rob Wiblin) // habryka4, 2 min

Choose simplicity and structure. // AllAmericanBreakfast, 1 min

# Epistemic

What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers // habryka4, 2 min

How To Fermi Model // habryka4, 12 min

The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels // Zvi, 19 min

On Chesterton's Fence // trentbrick, 12 min

Notes on good judgement and how to develop it (80,000 Hours) // habryka4, 1 min

# Ai

on “learning to summarize” // nostalgebraist, 9 min Favorite

How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? // habryka4, 1 min

How easily can we separate a friendly AI in design space from one which would bring about a hyperexistential catastrophe? // Anirandis, 2 min

Safety via selection for obedience // ricraz, 6 min

Do mesa-optimizer risk arguments rely on the train-test paradigm? // ben-cottier, 1 min

# Meta-ethics

The ethics of breeding to kill // George3d6, 7 min

# Anthropic

Luna First, But Not To Live There // NathanielMRouth, 6 min

Leslie's Firing Squad Can't Save The Fine-Tuning Argument // dadadarren, 4 min

# Decision theory

Comparative advantage and when to blow up your island // dynomight, 6 min

Social Capital Paradoxes // abramdemski, 4 min

Specialized Innovation Is Easier // Robin Hanson, 1 min

# Math and cs

CTWTB: Paths of Computation State // johnswentworth, 4 min

# Books

Indignation in response to the 1890 census // jasoncrawford, 1 min

# Relationships

Loneliness and the paradox of choice // AllAmericanBreakfast, 6 min Favorite

Loneliness // AllAmericanBreakfast, 15 min

# Community

Updates Thread // adamzerner, 1 min Favorite

Taking Hammertime Final Exam by efim // efim, 3 min

Austin Petrov Day: 6:30pm 9/26 // jchan, 1 min

Petrov Day celebration // Senarin, 1 min

Reading Discussion Group // AspiringRationalist, 1 min

# Culture war

Escalation Outside the System // jkaufman, 2 min

Changes in Reality // evan-huus, 1 min

# Misc

Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust // MakoYass, 14 min

Ice // Hivewired, 7 min

Rationality and playfulness // AllAmericanBreakfast, 14 min

Should some variant of longtermism identify as a religion? // MakoYass, 2 min

A Toy Model of Hingeyness // Bob Jacobs, 5 min

# Podcasts

Episode 119 – If You’re A Human, You’re Already Losing To GPT-3 // The Bayesian Conspiracy, 122 min

c13: Create the Illusion You’re Exclusive // Constellation, 72 min

Ideas for high impact careers beyond our priority paths (Article) // The 80000 Hours team, 27 min

EP76 Max Borders on the Social Singularity // The Jim Rutt Show, 92 min

# Videos of the week

Big data, small farms and a tale of two tomatoes | Erin Baumgartner // TED, 15 min